Using 538's urbanization index from the linked article - which appears to have been calculated in 2019, as well as the preliminary results at time of writing according to Dave Leip's Election Atlas, we can investigate this. As in 2016, we find a fairly strong positive correlation between FiveThirtyEight's urbanization index and the two-party vote share in the state. The correlation coefficient ...
In 538's Election Forecast, states are highlighted as either having "the closest races" or being "close to the tipping point". What is the difference between these two categories?
In the 538 Election Forecast, what is the difference between States ...
I just read this Wikipedia article. It says Trump won with a 304 to 227 for electoral votes. That's 304 + 227 = 531 votes. But the total number should be 538. Where did the 7 votes go?
7 Mostly the (Decennial) Census Generally, the electoral formula is Electoral Votes = Representatives + Senators. Each state has two Senators, so that's 100 of the 538 total Electoral Votes. Washington DC gets three electors; while they technically have shadow congresspeople, those don't get to vote in the House or Senate.
The 538 model says "Very large swings have occurred, if you look back to (for example) Truman v. Dewey. And sometimes something might happen that will completely change the course of the election (War was declared or a major scandal) and comes up with about 88% for Biden.
That leaves us guessing what some unknown subset of the population was thinking while they clicked on an internet poll. These points, as well as others such the inappropriateness of the question to such a survey (if you troll, you will get trolled), are made by the 538 podcast, a well respected polling aggregator.