The formal and traditional answer is makes, because the subject is the singular noun phrase receiving homemade cupcakes. In actual speech, and even sometimes in writing, many people say make, under the influence of the more recent plural noun cupcakes. I would recommend saying makes, but be prepared to hear make.
"Makes sense" seems to have two meanings: that someone understands something or that something is logically sound. How did this phrase enter the english language? What are its origins? It looks like